From 13 to 20 November, the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) met in Egypt. The position papers on blue shark fishing in the North and South Atlantic are now available.
Since 25 November, the blue shark (Prionace glauca), along with all other requiem shark species, has been listed on Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). This includes species that are not necessarily threatened with extinction, but may become so unless trade is closely controlled. Prior to this entering into force, one year had elapsed since the listing decision of 2022 – so how are the EU and ICCAT reacting to this now? The result, to anticipate the conclusion, is highly questionable. ICCAT's scientific body, the Standing Committee on Research and Statistics (SCRS), states that there is currently a 49.7% probability in the North Atlantic that the blue shark stock is not overfished and not subject to overfishing (represented by the green quadrant in the assessment models). However, they simultaneously calculate a 49.6% probability that the stock is currently overfished but not subject to overfishing (the yellow quadrant in the assessment models). These contradictory probabilities are thus separated only by decimals. Previously, ICCAT used the average catch levels from 2011 to 2015 as a baseline. The previous Total Allowable Catch (TAC) for blue shark in the North Atlantic was approximately 39,000 tonnes. This figure was last reached in 2017 with around 39,700 t. Since then, catch figures have continuously declined to 21,500 t in 2021.
Now, based on the recent findings of the SCRS and declining catches (which have halved since 2017 from 44,000 t in 2016 to 21,500 t in 2021), ICCAT has set a new catch quota of 27,500 t for blue shark. Specifically, this means:
EU catch quota: 21,767 t
Japan catch quota: 3,163 t
Morocco catch quota: 1,581 t
United Kingdom: 22 t
This compares with the actual blue shark landings by these nations in 2021:
EU: 17,468 t
Japan: 1,506 t
Morocco: 1,636 t
United Kingdom: 4 t
The newly established catch quota of 27,500 t provides at least three of the four fishing nations with considerable headroom to increase catches, provided that blue sharks are actually still present.
In the case of the EU, this means that compared to 2021, it is permitted to fish around 4,300 t more blue shark; Japan is allowed to double its catch, and the UK can even increase its catch fivefold, which admittedly does not carry much weight at 22 t. Morocco is the only nation not permitted to increase its catches further.
The position paper further states: "All other CPCs (Contracting Parties and Cooperating non-Contracting Parties, Entities or Fishing Entities) shall make every effort to not exceed their recent catch levels." In the South Atlantic, the situation is somewhat different. In its 2023 report, the SCRS assesses the state of the blue shark stock for 2021 as not currently overfished but subject to overfishing. Here, the scientific indicators appear unequivocal. Previously, a maximum catch quota of 28,923 t applied. In 2017, actual catches reached this quota; since 2018, it has been continuously exceeded, ranging between 33,000 t and 34,000 t per year.
A reaction has now been formulated: "The EU, Japan, and Taiwan would have to reduce their average catch levels of the last three years (2019-2021) by 20%. The remaining allocation should be assigned to Namibia and Brazil in proportion to their recent catch levels, which represents a reduction of 14.8% on their 2019-2021 average catch levels." Furthermore, the SCRS points out that continuing with current catch levels is projected to lead to a rapid decline in the biomass of the stock. ICCAT has established a maximum catch quota of 27,711 t. According to the SCRS, this would immediately stop overfishing and allow the stock to rebuild by 2033 with a probability of at least 54%. This indeed means that all participating fishing nations (the EU, Brazil, Namibia, Japan, and Taiwan) must reduce their blue shark catches in the South Atlantic.
In summary, although catches in the North Atlantic have been steadily declining since 2017 and have more than halved since 2016, ICCAT has set a quota that lies far beyond actual catch levels. This closely resembles a business-as-usual approach in the North Atlantic. This stands in contrast to the South Atlantic, where a catch quota is designed to enforce a reduction in fishing. A cynical observer might assume that the reduced catches in the South Atlantic could in future shift to the North Atlantic, where there is still "headroom" to increase catches. The catch figures of the coming years will demonstrate whether this occurs.
From our perspective, this is not good news for the blue shark population in the Atlantic.
