From 13 to 20 November, the "International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas" (ICCAT) met in Egypt. The position papers on blue shark fishing in the North and South Atlantic are now available. Since 25 November, the blue shark (Prionace glauca) has been listed alongside all other requiem shark species on Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). This includes species that are not necessarily threatened with extinction, but may become so, and are therefore subject to controlled trade. Prior to entry into force, one year has passed since the 2022 listing decision - and how are the EU and ICCAT reacting now? The outcome, it must be said in advance, is highly questionable. ICCAT's scientific body, the Standing Committee on Research and Statistics (SCRS), states that there is currently a 49.7% probability in the North Atlantic that the blue shark stock is not overfished and not subject to overfishing (represented by the green zone in the calculation models). Concurrently, however, a 49.6% probability is calculated that the stock is currently overfished but not subject to overfishing (represented by the yellow zone in the calculation models). The opposing probabilities are thus within the decimal range. Until now, ICCAT has used average catch levels from the years 2011 to 2015 as a baseline. The previous total allowable catch (TAC) for blue shark in the North Atlantic was around 39,000 tonnes. This figure was last reached in 2017 at around 39,700 t. Since then, catch figures have steadily declined, reaching 21,500 t in 2021. Now, based on the more recent findings of the SCRS and declining catches (which have more than halved from 44,000 t in 2016 to 21,500 t in 2021), ICCAT has established a new catch quota of 27,500 t for blue shark. Specifically, this means:
EU catch quota: 21,767 t
Japan catch quota: 3,163 t
Morocco catch quota: 1,581 t
United Kingdom: 22 t
In contrast, the actual blue shark landings by nation in 2021 were:
EU: 17,468 t
Japan: 1,506 t
Morocco: 1,636 t
United Kingdom: 4 t
The newly established catch quota of 27,500 t offers at least three of the four harvesting nations considerable headroom: an increase in catches, provided there are any blue sharks left. In the case of the EU, this means that, compared to 2021, it is permitted to harvest around 4,300 t more blue shark; Japan is allowed to double its catch, and the UK can increase its catch by more than fivefold, which admittedly does not carry much weight at 22 t. Morocco is the only nation not permitted to increase its catches further. The position paper goes on to state: "All other CPCs (Contracting Parties and Cooperating Non-Contracting Parties) shall endeavour to not exceed their recent catch levels." In the South Atlantic, the situation is somewhat different. In its 2023 report, the SCRS evaluates the status of the blue shark stock for 2021 as currently not overfished but subject to overfishing. Here, the scientific indications are clear. Previously, a maximum catch quota of 28,923 t was in place. In 2017, actual catches met this quota; since 2018, it has been continuously exceeded, ranging between 33,000 t and 34,000 t per year. The response is as follows: "The EU, Japan, and Taiwan must reduce their average catch levels of the last three years (2019-2021) by 20%. The remaining allocation should be assigned to Namibia and Brazil in proportion to their recent catch levels, representing a 14.8% reduction in their average 2019-2021 catch levels." Furthermore, the SCRS notes that continuing with current catch levels is expected to lead to a rapid decline in stock biomass. ICCAT has set a maximum catch quota of 27,711 t. According to the SCRS, this would stop overfishing immediately and allow the stock to rebuild by 2033 with a probability of at least 54%. This indeed means that all participating harvesting nations (EU, Brazil, Namibia, Japan, and Taiwan) must reduce their blue shark catches in the South Atlantic. In summary: although catches in the North Atlantic have been steadily declining since 2017 and have more than halved since 2016, ICCAT has set a quota that lies far beyond actual catch levels. In the North Atlantic, this comes very close to a green light for business as usual. This is in contrast to the South Atlantic, where a catch quota has been introduced that is intended to bring about a reduction in catches. A cynic might suspect that the reduced catches in the South Atlantic could shift to the North Atlantic in future, given that there is still "headroom" there. Catch figures in the coming years will tell. From our perspective, this is not good news for the Atlantic blue shark population.
