Efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C under the Paris Climate Agreement may not go far enough to save the world's ice sheets, according to a new study from Durham University.
The research suggests that the target should be closer to 1 °C in order to prevent significant losses to the polar ice sheets and a further acceleration of sea-level rise.
The ice mass lost from these ice sheets has quadrupled since the 1990s, and they are currently losing around 370 billion tonnes of ice per year. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), current warming is approximately 1.2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures.
Presently, around 230 million people live within one metre of sea level, and the melting ice represents an existential threat to these communities, including several low-lying nations. Belize, for example, relocated its capital inland long ago, yet the country's largest city will be inundated by a sea-level rise of just one metre.
Furthermore, sea levels are rising by a good centimetre annually.
Source: Stokes, C.R., Bamber, J.L., Dutton, A. et al. Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets. Commun Earth Environ6, 351 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w
