By the year 2050, approximately 10 billion people will inhabit our planet. This also has consequences for the oceans: recently presented forecasts by the Alfred-Wegener-Institut (AWI) at a marine conference hosted by the Bundesverband Windenergie Offshore e.V. (BWO) clearly highlight the dilemma.
From a global perspective, fisheries and aquaculture appear at first glance to be increasingly vital. Currently, industrial fisheries harvest around 90 million tonnes of fish from our oceans; these figures have been stagnant for years. Aquaculture produces a further 95 million tonnes of farmed fish, with a permanently rising trend. Additionally, there are 40 million tonnes of algae: China is the world's largest aquaculture producer. Following the calculation models, assuming current consumption levels, aquaculture would need to be increased to 190 million tonnes and wild capture fisheries in our oceans to 140 million tonnes by 2050. Such are the statistics.
Another figure is noteworthy: a date. The annual German fish dependence day was reached as early as 29 February in 2024. In 2025, it fell yet another week earlier. Statistically, Germany has imported fish for the remainder of the year from other countries, and thus from other fisheries and aquacultures, ever since that day.
Realistically, an increase in wild fish capture is impossible. The fishing industry is already reaching its limits, and the oceans are well known not to be inexhaustible. There can therefore be no 'business as usual'. The same applies to aquaculture: its surface area is also finite, as is the feed, which in turn is largely sourced from wild fisheries.
Meanwhile, one solution to the problem remains completely disregarded: redistribution.
If wealthy Western nations were to reduce their fish consumption or largely abstain from fish, this would benefit nations that depend on fish as a vital source of protein. There is also a complete imbalance between countries in Africa and South America, where fish is a staple food despite relatively low fishery yields, and the luxury product that fish represents in demographically shrinking nations with large-scale industrial fisheries, which also includes several countries in Asia.
There are many reasons to abstain from consuming fish: alongside health consequences and ethical concerns, we must view the overexploitation of the oceans as the most critical argument against fish consumption and act accordingly.
Source: https://bwo-offshorewind.de/10-april-2025-um-1400-uhr-online-bwo-expertise
